Unusual spot for both teams as UAB has only been a home underdog once since 2018 (0-1 ATS), and USF has been a road favorite once since 2020 (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU). We will learn alot about USF today as they are beginning to believe they can and should win, but can the eliminate the mistakes and win as a favorite on the road. UAB, picked to finish 8th in the preseason poll, is a bit of a mess with Trent Dilfer losing his mind on the sideline last week.
UAB ranks 130th nationally in points allowed (43.5 ppg) while USF comes in at 82nd (29.3 ppg) and both give up yards - UAB 131st (502 ypg) versus 82nd for USF (399 ypg). UAB's rush defense is one of the worst in the country and their pass defense is only slightly better, and while they do not out pressure on the QB they will turn over the other team.
UAB struggles to run the ball (bottom quartile in most metrics), which USF has shown its capable of stopping at times. UAB's offense throws alot and they are effective at it (Top 20 in passing attempt and yards per game), while USF has struggled against the pass.
This feels like a game that USF matches up well in most phases of the game (except defending the pass) but are they ready to play as a road favorite? Expect there to be plenty if points and both defense get worn out with as fast as these offense like to play.
Pick: Over 66.5
2023 Record: 2-3
UAB ranks 130th nationally in points allowed (43.5 ppg) while USF comes in at 82nd (29.3 ppg) and both give up yards - UAB 131st (502 ypg) versus 82nd for USF (399 ypg). UAB's rush defense is one of the worst in the country and their pass defense is only slightly better, and while they do not out pressure on the QB they will turn over the other team.
UAB struggles to run the ball (bottom quartile in most metrics), which USF has shown its capable of stopping at times. UAB's offense throws alot and they are effective at it (Top 20 in passing attempt and yards per game), while USF has struggled against the pass.
This feels like a game that USF matches up well in most phases of the game (except defending the pass) but are they ready to play as a road favorite? Expect there to be plenty if points and both defense get worn out with as fast as these offense like to play.
Pick: Over 66.5
2023 Record: 2-3
