Timeline
According to reports, Texas/OU will notify the Big 12 perhaps on Monday of their intent to depart at the end of their Grant of Rights (2024-25) and then the SEC invitation process will formally begin. Does anybody really expect UT/OU to remain in the Big 12 for FOUR more seasons? Not really. Joining in time for next season (2022) may prove to be challenging, but most people believe they'll find a way to join the SEC in time for 2023.
UT/OU are obviously hoping the Big 12 falls apart prior to the end of the GOR as that could save them a lot of money in buyout fees, but that only happens if other P5 leagues start scooping up the leftovers almost immediately. But that remains to be seen. Most believe it's unlikely, but you never know.
The Big 12 TV contract - right now - is currently the third-best among P5s and there is a belief that dollar amount wouldn't change even if Texas/OU leave early - provided the Big 12 remains at 10 schools.
Even if there is an eventual PAC-12 lifeboat for some of the Big 12 schools, it would be advantageous monetarily to stay in the Big 12 through the remainder of the TV contract to collect not only the TV money (which is a higher-dollar contract than the current PAC-12 deal) but also the massive UT/OU buyout fees.
So, it's an interesting dilemma for the remaining Big 12 schools. I'm sure they'll be waiting by the phone to see if other P5 leagues call, but they likely will have no other choice to forge ahead in the Big 12.
Again, it might be really difficult for UT/OU to join the SEC for 2022 (next season) but during the last wave of realignment in the early 2010s it should be noted that no school had to play more than one athletic season as a lame duck.
If there's any sliver of a chance that a UT/OU exit could be that soon, obviously the Big 12 has to act immediately to expand and backfill, just to maintain their TV contract.
Given the Big Ten and PAC-12 TV contract timelines, even if those schools may entertain adding schools, it may be a little too soon for those moves to be made.
Kansas Rivals Scoop
Jon Kirby, publisher of Jayhawk Slant (Kansas Rivals), posted some very interesting tidbits to his premium board on Saturday:
Over the last two days I have talked with a lot of people who know the landscape of college athletics and I will admit I was surprised when I got into realignment talk that several people believe two of the most coveted schools would be Kansas and Central Florida.
"Central Florida will be a rock star if realignment comes around," one person said.
From things people said... Although a commuter school UCF has 72,000 students. I was told their incoming class has a very impressive SAT combined score. I was also told Orlando just passed Miami in TV market share. They have very young alumni base. They are an upcoming school to reckon.
"They get calls all the time from Power Five schools," one person said.
I was surprised to hear more than one person say KU and UCF would be two schools that are coveted if it becomes a race to get to 16-team conferences.
Staying with a UCF theme I keep still hearing from people in the business if other conferences don't expand the Big 12 would be a viable conference if the right teams were added. The one team mentioned the most valuable is UCF and the next two are Cincinnati and Houston. The fourth is a crap shoot.
I have mentioned BYU to some people and I get cold responses. From what I hear BYU is difficult to work with and doesn't have a great reputation from an administration standpoint.
The thought is they don't know if they would take SMU because TCU already brings the Dallas area.
Most have said the Big 12 would still be recognized as a Power Five conference but not at the same level the others are.
The biggest issue with staying as the Big 12 is going to be the TV money. Opinions have varied when I talk to people about this. Last year the Big 12 gave out $34.5 million and that was down because of Covid. Bowlsby said next year's payout is expected to be around $40 million.
I spoke with someone who has worked TV deals and he didn't know what a revamped Big 12 would bring but he guessed somewhere in the $22-$25 million range.
Once you leave the Power Five TV model, the payouts really drop. The next closest conference is the AAC where they pull in $8 million per team and there is a drop off after that.
I know some KU fans hate this idea. I talked to a few friends last night and they said "no way" to this scenario. But people had better their minds open because nobody knows how this will go.
***
Random thoughts
Decent chance the B12 keeps P5 status without Texas and Oklahoma but they would need to invite several schools, probably four, quickly.
If the PAC12 invites B12 schools to join it probably won't be any of the Texas schools or Oklahoma State because California has some kind of ban on travel to states that California believes discriminate against LGBTQ.
If the AAC added any B12 schools it would probably be as the B12 completely implodes due to defections to the B1G and PAC12.
According to reports, Texas/OU will notify the Big 12 perhaps on Monday of their intent to depart at the end of their Grant of Rights (2024-25) and then the SEC invitation process will formally begin. Does anybody really expect UT/OU to remain in the Big 12 for FOUR more seasons? Not really. Joining in time for next season (2022) may prove to be challenging, but most people believe they'll find a way to join the SEC in time for 2023.
UT/OU are obviously hoping the Big 12 falls apart prior to the end of the GOR as that could save them a lot of money in buyout fees, but that only happens if other P5 leagues start scooping up the leftovers almost immediately. But that remains to be seen. Most believe it's unlikely, but you never know.
The Big 12 TV contract - right now - is currently the third-best among P5s and there is a belief that dollar amount wouldn't change even if Texas/OU leave early - provided the Big 12 remains at 10 schools.
Even if there is an eventual PAC-12 lifeboat for some of the Big 12 schools, it would be advantageous monetarily to stay in the Big 12 through the remainder of the TV contract to collect not only the TV money (which is a higher-dollar contract than the current PAC-12 deal) but also the massive UT/OU buyout fees.
So, it's an interesting dilemma for the remaining Big 12 schools. I'm sure they'll be waiting by the phone to see if other P5 leagues call, but they likely will have no other choice to forge ahead in the Big 12.
Again, it might be really difficult for UT/OU to join the SEC for 2022 (next season) but during the last wave of realignment in the early 2010s it should be noted that no school had to play more than one athletic season as a lame duck.
If there's any sliver of a chance that a UT/OU exit could be that soon, obviously the Big 12 has to act immediately to expand and backfill, just to maintain their TV contract.
Given the Big Ten and PAC-12 TV contract timelines, even if those schools may entertain adding schools, it may be a little too soon for those moves to be made.
Kansas Rivals Scoop
Jon Kirby, publisher of Jayhawk Slant (Kansas Rivals), posted some very interesting tidbits to his premium board on Saturday:
Over the last two days I have talked with a lot of people who know the landscape of college athletics and I will admit I was surprised when I got into realignment talk that several people believe two of the most coveted schools would be Kansas and Central Florida.
"Central Florida will be a rock star if realignment comes around," one person said.
From things people said... Although a commuter school UCF has 72,000 students. I was told their incoming class has a very impressive SAT combined score. I was also told Orlando just passed Miami in TV market share. They have very young alumni base. They are an upcoming school to reckon.
"They get calls all the time from Power Five schools," one person said.
I was surprised to hear more than one person say KU and UCF would be two schools that are coveted if it becomes a race to get to 16-team conferences.
Staying with a UCF theme I keep still hearing from people in the business if other conferences don't expand the Big 12 would be a viable conference if the right teams were added. The one team mentioned the most valuable is UCF and the next two are Cincinnati and Houston. The fourth is a crap shoot.
I have mentioned BYU to some people and I get cold responses. From what I hear BYU is difficult to work with and doesn't have a great reputation from an administration standpoint.
The thought is they don't know if they would take SMU because TCU already brings the Dallas area.
Most have said the Big 12 would still be recognized as a Power Five conference but not at the same level the others are.
The biggest issue with staying as the Big 12 is going to be the TV money. Opinions have varied when I talk to people about this. Last year the Big 12 gave out $34.5 million and that was down because of Covid. Bowlsby said next year's payout is expected to be around $40 million.
I spoke with someone who has worked TV deals and he didn't know what a revamped Big 12 would bring but he guessed somewhere in the $22-$25 million range.
Once you leave the Power Five TV model, the payouts really drop. The next closest conference is the AAC where they pull in $8 million per team and there is a drop off after that.
I know some KU fans hate this idea. I talked to a few friends last night and they said "no way" to this scenario. But people had better their minds open because nobody knows how this will go.
***
Random thoughts
Decent chance the B12 keeps P5 status without Texas and Oklahoma but they would need to invite several schools, probably four, quickly.
If the PAC12 invites B12 schools to join it probably won't be any of the Texas schools or Oklahoma State because California has some kind of ban on travel to states that California believes discriminate against LGBTQ.
If the AAC added any B12 schools it would probably be as the B12 completely implodes due to defections to the B1G and PAC12.
