Given the level of discussion over guys who didn't play much (or at all) at the P5 level and what I perceive to be a pollyannish view of bringing in so many guys, I thought that it would make sense to take a look at all of the transfers we've brought in from the P5 since 2013, including their blended rating from TOS, their stats at their first school, their stats here, and then my subjective impact grade between 1-5. To account for differences between hardship waivers, sit out years, and grad transfers, I'll just use the season the guy pops up on the roster. I'm not counting sit-out seasons as seasons for USF. That means this won't include guys like Mike McFarland, Chris Dunkley, or Darrell Scott, though it should be noted that none of those three lived up to their recruiting billing.
2013
DE Aaron Lynch .9947. One season at Notre Dame, 12 games, 6 starts, 33 tackles 5.5 sacks. One season at USF, 12 starts, 30 tackles, 6 sacks, 12.5 TFLs. He came over in 2012, but I didn't want to start the list with two empty seasons. At the time, he seemed a bit disappointing given that he was a projected first round pick, but looking back, that type of production for a terrible team is pretty solid. 4/5
2014
None
2015
QB Asiantii Woulard .9393. Two seasons at UCLA, no games. One season at USF, no games. 1/5, a fairly epic bust.
LB Cecil Cherry .8771. One preseason at Texas. One season at USF, 10 games, 30 tackles. 1/5, though he was productive at the next three JUCO/FCS schools that he attended.
OT Reilly Gibbons .8917. One preseason at Stanford. Never played at USF. 1/5, though injuries were the culprit. He's apparently a lawyer now, having graduated from Notre Dame.
WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling .8117. Two seasons at NCSU, 16 games, 22 catches in each season for 538 yards. Two seasons at USF, single-season yardage record holder. 5/5, nothing more needs to be said.
2016
OT Grant Polk .8466. One season at UVA, did not play. One season at USF, 3 backup appearances, left due to injury and played another year in the FCS. 1/5.
2017
DE Marquies Price .8518. Two seasons, 21 games, 14 starts at Duke, 34 tackles, 3.5 sacks. Kicked off team. One season at USF, 2 games, 1 tackle. 1/5 and allegedly a toxic presence and kicked off team
DT Brandon Boyce. .8402. Two seasons, 21 games, 0 starts, 31 tackles, 2 sacks, with a smaller role in year 2. Kicked off team. One season at USF, 5 games, 24 tackles, 3 TFLs, and one sack. 2/5- he flashed brilliantly in the few games he played. Kicked off team
2018
RB Jordan Cronkrite .8853. Two seasons, 24 games, one start at UF, 302 yards, 4 TDs rushing and 209 yards and 2 TDs receiving. Two seasons at USF, 22 games (I think all starts), 1,808 yards and 13 TDs rushing, 164 yards receiving. 5/5- dumbass Gilbert misued him and didn't throw to a very good receiving back, but in 2018, Cronkrite was everything you could reasonably expect.
QB Blake Barnett .9088. Two seasons, three games, one start at Bama, 11-19 for 219 yards. Grad transfer- one season, three games, 3-5 passing at Arizona State. Two seasons, 15 games, 3,139 yards, 59.5% completion and 16:13 TD:INT, 344 yards and 8 TDs rushing. 4/5. I know some people don't like him, but I think he flashed brilliance at times and was really hampered by a moron of a coordinator. He was willing to take a hit and had a missile. Compared to Oladokun and Kean, he certainly gave us a better chance to win, but it did seem to really disrupt the locker room.
WR Eddie McDoom .8825. Two seasons, 21 games, 16 catches 140 yards receiving and 24 carries and 203 yards rushing at Michigan, with role shrinking in year 2. One season, 13 catches, 174 yards and 15 yards rushing at USF. 2/5- really didn't do much while he was here
OT Jarrett Hopple .8466 Two years, zero games at UVA. Two seasons, 16 games, 6 starts at USF. 2/5 he just wasn't very effective. Some may argue for 3/5, but I think he was below average.
2019
S Devin Studstill .8709. Three years, 23 games at ND (11 as a freshman, 9 soph, and 3 junior), 60 tackles, 1 INT. Grad transfer- one year, 74 tackles, 1 INT at USF. 3/5- he was useful, but wasn't a superstar by any means
CB KJ Sails .8653. Three years, 19 games, 14 starts, 40 tackles, 15 PBUs at UNC. Two seasons, 21 starts, 63 tackles, 3 INTs, 8 PBUs at USF, plus some punt return duties. 4/5- pretty good impact, especially in 2019, and a locker room leader.
DE Ryan Thaxton .8497. One season, zero games at Tennessee, kicked out, technically a JUCO guy. Three seasons, 10 games, 12 tackles at USF. 1/5 career backup.
LB Patrick Macon .8720. Two seasons, zero games at OKSU- injured for entire 2018 season. Grad transfer, one season, 9 games, 67 tackles, 8 TFLs, 2 sacks at USF. 4/5- he was quite good when healthy
WR Latrell Williams .8555. Three seasons, two games at Tennessee, no stats. Technically a JUCO guy. Three seasons, 12 games, 29 catches, 319 yards at USF. 3/5- seemed like this could have been a decent year for him prior to injury. Unclear if he's coming back
TE Jacob Mathis .8953. Two seasons, zero games at Ole Miss. Three seasons, 25 games, one start, 18 catches, 218 yards at USF. 2/5- basically just a guy.
2020
RB Darrian Felix .8579. Three seasons, 17 games, 426 yards and three TDs rushing and 10 catches for 94 yards at Oregon. Two seasons, 7 games, 132 yards (3.0 yards per carry) at USF. 1/5- clearly not as good as Joiner or Battie
QB Cade Fortin .8676. One season, 4 games, 388 yards and 49.2% passing at UNC. Two seasons, 6 games, 222 yards on 51.8% passing, with 0 TDs and 2 INTs at USF. 1/5- just not an FBS QB
LB Devin Gil .8428. Four seasons, 23 games, 45 tackles at Michigan. Grad transfer, zero seasons at USF due to opting out. 0/5
CB TJ Robinson .8439. One season, four games, five tackles at Rutgers. One season, 10 games, 31 tackles at USF and counting. 2/5 he was not very good this year but could improve
K Jared Sackett NR. One season, zero games at Arkansas after transferring from UTSA. Two seasons, 6/10 FG at USF. 2/5 I guess he pushed Schrader, so that's helpful. He's back at UTSA. The circle of life
2021
WR Demarcus Gregory .8791. Three seasons, 16 games, 16 catches (all in 2019), lost role in 2020. One season, 11 catches, 169 yards at USF. 2/5 but he's already gone (wouldn't argue with 1/5 here)
DE Jamari Stewart .8615. One season, opted out at Ole Miss. Allegedly kicked off team. One season, zero games at USF due to injury. 1/5, already gone
CB Christian Williams .9328. Two seasons, 14 games, 5 tackles at Miami. Lost role in 2020. One season, 6 games, 20 tackles, 2 INTs at USF. 3/5 and trending up
CB Will Jones .8668. Two seasons, 11 games, 16 tackles. Lost role in 2020. One season, zero games at USF due to injury. 1/5 hopefully improving next year
RB Jaren Mangham .8858. Two seasons, 15 games, 476 yards 5 TDs at Colorado. Role depleted in 2020. One season at USF, 671 yards and 15 TDs. 5/5 so far, couldn't ask for more
WR Yusuf Terry .8588. Two seasons, 6 games, 6 catches, 69 yards at Baylor. One season at USF, 6 catches 62 yards. 1/5 hopefully improving next year
S Matthew Hill .9562 Three seasons, 8 games as reserve WR and then DB at Auburn. One season at USF, 50 tackles, one INT. 2/5 he played a lot, but most of it was pretty rough. Hopefully he'll be better
Guys who played a decent sized role in the P5 generally were pretty good here (Lynch, MVS, Cronk, Studstill, Sails, and Mangham). Price is the primary bust of that group, and that was a major risk by CCS to bring a guy with a known character problem into the program.
Of the guys who didn't play much, Barnett and Macon have been the most successful, with Mathis, TJ Robinson, Williams, and Hill being the only others to even become significant contributors here. I graded 20 of the 30 as 2/5 or worse.
I am not trying to be a debbie downer here. I just think people need to pump the brakes on all of these guys who haven't played or played a bit and lost their jobs in the P5. It is a massive crapshoot as to whether a guy who hasn't played before will be any good here. One program has already looked at these guys up close and determined that they didn't him. Except for Aaron Lynch, Marqueis Price, and maybe KJ Sails, virtually every guy on the list never had a major role or had a rotational role get diminished, and Lynch was probably the only guy on the entire list that the head coach really cared about losing. That's the story of our incoming class as well. CJS and staff have taken a massive leap of faith this year and they are working against history. At least they seem to understand that by continuing to bring in hedges at DT and WR- the quantity increases the changes of hitting on quality.
At a minimum, this exercise should really solidy for people that a guy's recruiting ranking is entirely irrelevant to whether he'll be a contributor after transferring a few years later. The lowest ranked guy on the list is MVS, who is the best P5 transfer we've landed since Tyrone McKenzie. However, MVS actually played at his P5, which seems to be a far better indicator of future success. I suppose I should do my job now.
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