West Georgia at South Florida (-18.5)

[brybull1970]

Over/under set at 153.5 with 2 of the worst defenses in the country early on. Of note:

• South Florida is 0-3 ATS while failing to cover by an average of almost 8 ppg, while West Georgia is 2-1 ATS
• The last of 4 straight road games for West Georgia to open the season
• The Bulls have gone over this number all 3 games and West Georgia has been around this number in its three games - on average, these two teams are giving up a combined 170 points per game
• Both teams rank in the top quartile in possessions per game - USF at #47 and WGU #77
• While both teams struggle to shoot at times, both defenses are among the worst in D1 in 2-point FG % - USF at #318 and WGU at #358 which is a sure sign that the opposition is getting in close for easy shots

Expect lots of possessions against defenses that will allow inside penetration, which should keep West Georgia close enough. Vegas still hasn't been able to price USF properly so pound the market inefficiency.

Pick: Over 153.5; Lean: West Georgia +18.5