In light of the post about CJS and progress, I thought I'd look at how many passing and rushing TDs we've scored each year for the last decade and the average per game.
2021: 20 (2.5)
2020: 23 (2.3)
2019: 33 (2.75)
2018: 43 (3.3)
2017: 55 (4.2)
2016: 73 (5.6)
2015: 54 (4.2)
2014: 22 (1.8)
2013: 11 (.9)
2012: 28 (2.3)
2011: 37 (3.1)
Basically I just wanted to see what the current team is on pace for against our recent historical record. The biggest takeaway here is that you basically have to average at least 3 TDs per game to have a shot at a bowl.
More importantly, what this exercise showed me is that this year's team is strikingly similar to Kerwin's 2019 offense. Looking more closely, the 2019 team completed 54% of its passes for 6.2 YPA, and ran for 4.3 YPC. That team threw 27.3 times per game and ran 37 times per game. This year's team is completing 54.2% for 6.5 YPA, and is running for 4.4 YPC. This year's team is throwing 26.5 times and is running 42.25 times per game.
Naturally, I wanted to see how Timmy McClain stacked up. Suffice it to say, he is a marked improvement. Breaking it down to Timmy's four full games (FAMU through Tulsa), we have 162 carries for 648 yards (4 YPC) and have thrown for 54-98 (55%) for 727 (7.4 YPA). The team averaged exactly 3 offensive TDs per game (and who knows what would have happened in the Tulsa game if the offense hadn't lost two possessions to the pick 6 and Battie return). When you throw in the Temple game, the rushing numbers explode to 235 carries for 1,069 yards (4.5 YPC) and the passing stats go to 69-119 (57%) for 832 (7 YPA) and the offense is averaging over 3 TDs per game.
It's a small sample, but I think what Timmy has already shown is that when he's in the game, he and the offense are producing enough to be a competitive team. While the 2013 team was comically bad, Timmy is outperforming every other losing team's offense, and is actually at a pretty similar level to BJ Daniels and the offense in 2011 (BJ was at 58.9% for 7.1 YPA and that offense ran for 4.6 per carry, which is virtually identical to the output in Timmy's five starts). While 2011 is a bad memory for most of us, a better coach goes 6-6 or 7-5 that year (Skip had last minute losses to Cincy and WVU that were just unbelievably dumb). In sum, on a stats-only level, there is absolutely no QB controversy at USF, and I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that Timmy will be even better in the future. Extrapolating his production (and the production of those around him) gets you to a level of offensive output that should secure a bowl game. We'll see how the remaining four games change the analysis, but I'm pleasantly surprised by what this shows.
TL;DR: In the games that Timmy has started, the offense produces at a rate that has virtually guaranteed a bowl game in our past, which means that with even average defensive play, a bowl in 2022 should be a near certainty.
2021: 20 (2.5)
2020: 23 (2.3)
2019: 33 (2.75)
2018: 43 (3.3)
2017: 55 (4.2)
2016: 73 (5.6)
2015: 54 (4.2)
2014: 22 (1.8)
2013: 11 (.9)
2012: 28 (2.3)
2011: 37 (3.1)
Basically I just wanted to see what the current team is on pace for against our recent historical record. The biggest takeaway here is that you basically have to average at least 3 TDs per game to have a shot at a bowl.
More importantly, what this exercise showed me is that this year's team is strikingly similar to Kerwin's 2019 offense. Looking more closely, the 2019 team completed 54% of its passes for 6.2 YPA, and ran for 4.3 YPC. That team threw 27.3 times per game and ran 37 times per game. This year's team is completing 54.2% for 6.5 YPA, and is running for 4.4 YPC. This year's team is throwing 26.5 times and is running 42.25 times per game.
Naturally, I wanted to see how Timmy McClain stacked up. Suffice it to say, he is a marked improvement. Breaking it down to Timmy's four full games (FAMU through Tulsa), we have 162 carries for 648 yards (4 YPC) and have thrown for 54-98 (55%) for 727 (7.4 YPA). The team averaged exactly 3 offensive TDs per game (and who knows what would have happened in the Tulsa game if the offense hadn't lost two possessions to the pick 6 and Battie return). When you throw in the Temple game, the rushing numbers explode to 235 carries for 1,069 yards (4.5 YPC) and the passing stats go to 69-119 (57%) for 832 (7 YPA) and the offense is averaging over 3 TDs per game.
It's a small sample, but I think what Timmy has already shown is that when he's in the game, he and the offense are producing enough to be a competitive team. While the 2013 team was comically bad, Timmy is outperforming every other losing team's offense, and is actually at a pretty similar level to BJ Daniels and the offense in 2011 (BJ was at 58.9% for 7.1 YPA and that offense ran for 4.6 per carry, which is virtually identical to the output in Timmy's five starts). While 2011 is a bad memory for most of us, a better coach goes 6-6 or 7-5 that year (Skip had last minute losses to Cincy and WVU that were just unbelievably dumb). In sum, on a stats-only level, there is absolutely no QB controversy at USF, and I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that Timmy will be even better in the future. Extrapolating his production (and the production of those around him) gets you to a level of offensive output that should secure a bowl game. We'll see how the remaining four games change the analysis, but I'm pleasantly surprised by what this shows.
TL;DR: In the games that Timmy has started, the offense produces at a rate that has virtually guaranteed a bowl game in our past, which means that with even average defensive play, a bowl in 2022 should be a near certainty.
