Bill Connelly's returning production chart is up:
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USF comes in 14th in the nation. Out of conference, Boise is #9, Alabama #35, and Miami #75. In the AAC, here are some notables: Memphis 119, Tulane 70, Army 86, Navy 34, ECU 107, and UTSA 31.
In the olden days, returning production was a great sign. I think the portal has destroyed the apples to apples comparison (except for the service academies). Here's how he accounts for the portal- I'm not sure it's the best way, but I'm not sure there is a better way either, or at least until there is a bigger sample size to start drawing conclusions about predicting transfer production:
For returning production, I mash an incoming player's production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. (Because the translation in moving from the lower levels of the sport to the FBS is extremely inconsistent, I give only half-credit for players transferring up from lower divisions.) So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was productive elsewhere -- hello, Miami (Carson Beck) and Indiana (Fernando Mendoza) -- that dampens the blow of your QB leaving.
For the recruiting aspect, I attempt to account for incoming transfers' recruiting rankings in a given team's overall recruiting averages. The initial impact of a given recruiting class (freshmen plus transfers) is skewed heavily toward transfers before shifting toward younger recruits in future seasons.
Here is the current weighting for determining the offensive percentages above:
• Percent of returning OL snaps: 40% of the overall number
• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 35%
• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 22%
• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 3%
Broken out by position/player, you're looking at roughly 22% for the quarterback, 9% for each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends, 8% for each offensive lineman and 3% for the running back. Keep in mind: This is not based on my personal opinion of positional importance -- it's all about what impacts the numbers the most. On average, teams are able to overcome turnover at running back more easily than turnover at other positions. That's how Arizona State and Boise State can both end up in the top 10 in returning production despite losing two running backs -- Cam Skattebo and Ashton Jeanty, respectively -- who combined for 4,312 rushing yards in 2024.
Breaking things out by position is a bit trickier on defense, where units aren't as strictly defined and the percentage of returning production is derived both from position units and types of stats. I've also finally begun incorporating raw snap counts into the defensive production averages, and it seems to be a pretty strong predictor. Here's the approximate layout:
• Percent of returning snaps: 66%
• Percent of returning tackles: 19%
• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 15%
By position, linebackers make up about 35% of the defensive formula, while the defensive line is at 33% and the defensive backs are at 32%.
Ranking returning production for every FBS team: Who should improve, regress in 2025
What teams have the most (and least) coming back, and what will it all mean next season?
USF comes in 14th in the nation. Out of conference, Boise is #9, Alabama #35, and Miami #75. In the AAC, here are some notables: Memphis 119, Tulane 70, Army 86, Navy 34, ECU 107, and UTSA 31.
In the olden days, returning production was a great sign. I think the portal has destroyed the apples to apples comparison (except for the service academies). Here's how he accounts for the portal- I'm not sure it's the best way, but I'm not sure there is a better way either, or at least until there is a bigger sample size to start drawing conclusions about predicting transfer production:
For returning production, I mash an incoming player's production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. (Because the translation in moving from the lower levels of the sport to the FBS is extremely inconsistent, I give only half-credit for players transferring up from lower divisions.) So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was productive elsewhere -- hello, Miami (Carson Beck) and Indiana (Fernando Mendoza) -- that dampens the blow of your QB leaving.
For the recruiting aspect, I attempt to account for incoming transfers' recruiting rankings in a given team's overall recruiting averages. The initial impact of a given recruiting class (freshmen plus transfers) is skewed heavily toward transfers before shifting toward younger recruits in future seasons.
Here is the current weighting for determining the offensive percentages above:
• Percent of returning OL snaps: 40% of the overall number
• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 35%
• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 22%
• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 3%
Broken out by position/player, you're looking at roughly 22% for the quarterback, 9% for each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends, 8% for each offensive lineman and 3% for the running back. Keep in mind: This is not based on my personal opinion of positional importance -- it's all about what impacts the numbers the most. On average, teams are able to overcome turnover at running back more easily than turnover at other positions. That's how Arizona State and Boise State can both end up in the top 10 in returning production despite losing two running backs -- Cam Skattebo and Ashton Jeanty, respectively -- who combined for 4,312 rushing yards in 2024.
Breaking things out by position is a bit trickier on defense, where units aren't as strictly defined and the percentage of returning production is derived both from position units and types of stats. I've also finally begun incorporating raw snap counts into the defensive production averages, and it seems to be a pretty strong predictor. Here's the approximate layout:
• Percent of returning snaps: 66%
• Percent of returning tackles: 19%
• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 15%
By position, linebackers make up about 35% of the defensive formula, while the defensive line is at 33% and the defensive backs are at 32%.
