Our biggest concern going into this season to meet or exceed our expectations has to be defense. Every pundit talking about us keeps using our poor defensive play in 2016 as a word of caution for tempering enthusiasm. Last year defense was atrocious, and many believe that unless we see a considerable jump in production on defense we will probably struggle to match last year’s victory total. I looked back to see between 2015 season and 2016 season what were the glaring differences.
One thing that stands out is from 2015 to 2016 we only lost three regular starters on defense- Byrd, Bullock, Lee- plus a few key back-ups in Hamilton, Whitehurst, and Hill. Seems like a lot but they all had back-ups who were logging significant minutes, stats and none were irreplaceable studs. Generally speaking the personnel was there to keep the defense going.
In 2015 we were ranked #52 total D, #35 score D, #17 TFL, #24 sacks, #14 INT, #67 fumbles recovered, #13 TO margin, #48, #47 3rd down conversion, #30 rush defense, #80 pass D, #31 team Eff. D, #14 long rush plays surrendered, #74 long pass plays, #35 total long plays surrendered, and #40 first down conversions, #34 KO returns, #60 Punt returns ( and this considering defensively we laid an egg against WKU in the bowl). We were not the strongest passing D because we played in, and against a lot of pass happy offenses this season. Stout against the run, splash defensive plays, 3rd down conversion, 1st downs surrendered, and total big plays surrendered especially on the ground. In summary, we were aggressive on defense, stout against the run, put lots of teams in 3rd and long situations forcing them to pass or kick FG’s to score, and we limited the big plays on defense.
Turn to 2016 and here’s how we looked; ranked #121 total D, #94 scoring D, #58 TFL, #38 sacks, #22 INT, #67 fumbles recovered, #14 TO margin, #48, #69 3rd down conversion, #86 rush D, #122 pass D, #68 team eff. D, #96 long rush plays surrendered, #118 long pass plays, #123 total long plays surrendered, and #124 in first down conversions for opponents, #94 KO returns, #88 Punt returns. In summary, were bad stopping the run, got worse stopping the pass, our splash defensive plays dropped considerably, we gave up many 3rd down conversions, 1st downs, allowed lots of big plays, and our coverage on special teams went from decent to bad.
So why the change? One could suggest personnel changes and players. I mentioned who we lost, but all those positions had quality back-up players that logged minutes. The players in the last 5 games in 2015 we only lost 6 of our top 24 players in tackles, and other key categories. It should have been a plug and play, maybe a slight dip, but we shouldn’t have seen an enormous drop. I look at McGee, who logged a lot of minutes behind Byrd and played in all 12 games with one start. In 2015-d 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 FR, 2 QBH, 1 PBU, and 28 tackles. In 2016 as the starter you would expect him to have come close to matching Byrd’s numbers, Coach Allen used Byrd all over the field, but McGee had 51 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU, 1 FF, and 1 FR. Why the pedestrian numbers, because our new DC didn’t move McGee around as a weapon like Allen did, he didn’t understand the nuances of this defense, how to call it, how to align the players, and scheme properly. No finer example of this is seen in Nichols numbers…in 2015- 64 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 1 sack, 4 INT’s, 5 PBU, 2 FF, 1 FR, and 3 QBH, but 2016- 48 tackles, 2 TFL, no sacks, 4 INT’s, 7 PBU, no QBH, no FF, or FR. What’s the difference? Clearly Allen liked to blitz from all angles, and Nichols got to come on some corner blitzes to put pressure on the running game, and QB…he didn’t get those type of chances in 2016. Why Coach Woodie didn’t understand the defense completely, how to coach it, use it effectively, align the players and scheme to succeed.
The point of this is to suggest that perhaps our defensive efficiency does have the potential to make a massive jump after such a poor 2016. We return 13 defenders that saw time against WKU in the bowl game, and we return guys like Sanchez, Bronson (how does he go from a promising 2015 were they used him inside and out where he had 24 tackles, 4 TFL, 3 sacks, 3 PBU, 3 QBH, and 1 FF, to 2016 where he played much more and had only 29 tackles, 6 TFL, 1 sack, no PBU, 1 QBH, and no FF—coaching!), Love, Hector, Nichols, McGee, Hoggins, Abraham, Fullwood, and Danny Thomas all come in with lots of time played, lots of great plays in 2015 but most saw some dips in 2016. It was coaching, with a new aggressive frame of mind, a repaired Sanchez shoulder, a coach that understands the system, how to use it, how to be aggressive in it, and to use it to disrupt we can be better quickly. We have more senior defenders than anyone, stronger and deeper then we’ve been on defense in 5 years, and more athletic. Usually when a defense is horrid it is hard to change the spots on a leopard, and it takes time to change personnel that can do what coaches want, but I contend that we have the pieces in place, guys that did the right things in 2015, and we just need a coach that can get them to execute, force more aggression, toughness, and who knows how to use this defense properly. Here’s hoping BJM, and CCS are those guys because I believe the personnel is here to make the necessary jumps.
One thing that stands out is from 2015 to 2016 we only lost three regular starters on defense- Byrd, Bullock, Lee- plus a few key back-ups in Hamilton, Whitehurst, and Hill. Seems like a lot but they all had back-ups who were logging significant minutes, stats and none were irreplaceable studs. Generally speaking the personnel was there to keep the defense going.
In 2015 we were ranked #52 total D, #35 score D, #17 TFL, #24 sacks, #14 INT, #67 fumbles recovered, #13 TO margin, #48, #47 3rd down conversion, #30 rush defense, #80 pass D, #31 team Eff. D, #14 long rush plays surrendered, #74 long pass plays, #35 total long plays surrendered, and #40 first down conversions, #34 KO returns, #60 Punt returns ( and this considering defensively we laid an egg against WKU in the bowl). We were not the strongest passing D because we played in, and against a lot of pass happy offenses this season. Stout against the run, splash defensive plays, 3rd down conversion, 1st downs surrendered, and total big plays surrendered especially on the ground. In summary, we were aggressive on defense, stout against the run, put lots of teams in 3rd and long situations forcing them to pass or kick FG’s to score, and we limited the big plays on defense.
Turn to 2016 and here’s how we looked; ranked #121 total D, #94 scoring D, #58 TFL, #38 sacks, #22 INT, #67 fumbles recovered, #14 TO margin, #48, #69 3rd down conversion, #86 rush D, #122 pass D, #68 team eff. D, #96 long rush plays surrendered, #118 long pass plays, #123 total long plays surrendered, and #124 in first down conversions for opponents, #94 KO returns, #88 Punt returns. In summary, were bad stopping the run, got worse stopping the pass, our splash defensive plays dropped considerably, we gave up many 3rd down conversions, 1st downs, allowed lots of big plays, and our coverage on special teams went from decent to bad.
So why the change? One could suggest personnel changes and players. I mentioned who we lost, but all those positions had quality back-up players that logged minutes. The players in the last 5 games in 2015 we only lost 6 of our top 24 players in tackles, and other key categories. It should have been a plug and play, maybe a slight dip, but we shouldn’t have seen an enormous drop. I look at McGee, who logged a lot of minutes behind Byrd and played in all 12 games with one start. In 2015-d 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 FR, 2 QBH, 1 PBU, and 28 tackles. In 2016 as the starter you would expect him to have come close to matching Byrd’s numbers, Coach Allen used Byrd all over the field, but McGee had 51 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU, 1 FF, and 1 FR. Why the pedestrian numbers, because our new DC didn’t move McGee around as a weapon like Allen did, he didn’t understand the nuances of this defense, how to call it, how to align the players, and scheme properly. No finer example of this is seen in Nichols numbers…in 2015- 64 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 1 sack, 4 INT’s, 5 PBU, 2 FF, 1 FR, and 3 QBH, but 2016- 48 tackles, 2 TFL, no sacks, 4 INT’s, 7 PBU, no QBH, no FF, or FR. What’s the difference? Clearly Allen liked to blitz from all angles, and Nichols got to come on some corner blitzes to put pressure on the running game, and QB…he didn’t get those type of chances in 2016. Why Coach Woodie didn’t understand the defense completely, how to coach it, use it effectively, align the players and scheme to succeed.
The point of this is to suggest that perhaps our defensive efficiency does have the potential to make a massive jump after such a poor 2016. We return 13 defenders that saw time against WKU in the bowl game, and we return guys like Sanchez, Bronson (how does he go from a promising 2015 were they used him inside and out where he had 24 tackles, 4 TFL, 3 sacks, 3 PBU, 3 QBH, and 1 FF, to 2016 where he played much more and had only 29 tackles, 6 TFL, 1 sack, no PBU, 1 QBH, and no FF—coaching!), Love, Hector, Nichols, McGee, Hoggins, Abraham, Fullwood, and Danny Thomas all come in with lots of time played, lots of great plays in 2015 but most saw some dips in 2016. It was coaching, with a new aggressive frame of mind, a repaired Sanchez shoulder, a coach that understands the system, how to use it, how to be aggressive in it, and to use it to disrupt we can be better quickly. We have more senior defenders than anyone, stronger and deeper then we’ve been on defense in 5 years, and more athletic. Usually when a defense is horrid it is hard to change the spots on a leopard, and it takes time to change personnel that can do what coaches want, but I contend that we have the pieces in place, guys that did the right things in 2015, and we just need a coach that can get them to execute, force more aggression, toughness, and who knows how to use this defense properly. Here’s hoping BJM, and CCS are those guys because I believe the personnel is here to make the necessary jumps.
