Bracketology (March 3rd, 2024)

brybull1970 · Mar 3, 2024

Assuming the Bulls can take care of business in their last 2 games, there are 3 scenarios that would have vastly different impacts on USF's NCAA tournament hopes:

USF wins AAC tournament - Bulls get the AQ spot for the American
FAU wins the AAC tournament - door still open for the Bulls to get an at-large selection
Any other AAC teams with the tournament - this would be a "bid stealer" scenario where that team would take a spot away from the at-large pool, which would include USF

For scenario #1 I can easily see the Bulls making to the 9 or 10-seed line riding a 19 game winning streak. In scenario #3 I think USF would be left out as I can't see the tournament taking 3 AAC teams (although the committee is supposed to be agnostic to conference when making at-large selections). So let's project out scenario #2 which would be the best outcome for USF if they don't win the conference tournament.

Based on current regular season leaders (projecting as tourney champs), using NET (to slot at-large teams) and eliminating any team with a .500 record or worse or a losing conference record, below is USF's place on the bubble assuming someone other than USF wins the AAC tourney.

Automatic Qualifier (projected) - 32 teams

Houston (#1) - Big 12
Purdue (#2) - Big Ten
Arizona (#3) - PAC-12
UConn (#4) - Big East
Tennessee (#5) - SEC
North Carolina (#10) - ACC
St. Mary's (#16) - WCC
Indiana State (#29) - Missouri Valley
Florida Atlantic (#35) - American Athletic Conference
Utah State (#36) - Mountain West
Princeton (#51) - Ivy
Grand Canyon (#55) - WAC
McNeese (#56) - Southland
Appalachian State (#59) - Sun Belt
Richmond (#72) - Atlantic 10
UC-Irvine (#76) - Big West
Samford (#81) - Southern
Vermont (#97) - America East
Charleston (#101) - CAA
Akron (#102) - MAC
High Point (#108) - Big South
Colgate (#131) - Patriot
Eastern Washington (#132) - Big Sky
Oakland (#138) - Horizon
South Dakota State (#152) - Summit
Sam Houston (#161) - Conference USA
Quinnipiac (#167) - MAAC
Little Rock (#188) - Ohio Valley
Merrimack (#197) - Northeast
Eastern Kentucky (#205) - ASUN
Norfolk State (#233) - MEAC
Grambling (#294) - SWAC

At Large - 36 teams

Auburn (#6) - SEC
Alabama (#7) - SEC
Iowa State (#8) - Big 12
Duke (#9) - ACC
Creighton (#11) - Big East
BYU (#12) - Big 12
Baylor (#13) - Big 12
Marquette (#14) - Big East
Illinois (#15) - Big Ten
Gonzaga (#17) - WCC
Kansas (#18) - Big 12
San Diego State (#19) - MWC
Kentucky (#20) - SEC
Dayton (#21) - A-10
Michigan State (#22) - Big Ten (9-9 conference record)
Wisconsin (#23) - Big Ten
Boise State (#24) - MWC
Clemson (#25) - ACC
Villanova (#26) - Big East
Texas (#27) - Big 12 (8-8 conference record)
New Mexico (#28) - MWC
Colorado (#30) - Pac-12
Wake Forest (#31) - ACC
Mississippi State (#32) - SEC (8-8 conference record)
Florida (#33) - SEC
Colorado State (#34) - MWC
Washington State (#37) - PAC-12
TCU (#38) - Big 12 (8-8 conference record)
St John's (#39) - Big East (9-9 conference record)
Nevada (#41) - MWC
Texas Tech (#42) - Big 12
Nebraska (#43) - Big Ten
Pittsburgh (#44) - ACC
Utah (#46) - PAC-12 (9-9 conference record)
South Carolina (#47) - SEC
Drake (#48) - Missouri Valley
Virginia (#49) - ACC
SMU (#50) - American
James Madison (#52) - Sun Belt
Northwestern (#53) - Big Ten
Iowa (#57) - Big Ten
Bradley (#59) - Missouri Valley
Xavier (#61) - Big East (9-9 conference record)
Seton Hall (#62) - Big East
Providence (#63) - Big East (9-9 conference record)
San Francisco (#64) - WCC
Oregon (#65) - PAC-12
St. Bonaventure (#67) - A-10
Memphis (#74) - American
VCU (#75) - A-10
Minnesota (#77) - Big Ten (9-9 conference record)
South Florida (#79) - American

So it looks like there 15 teams between #36 - #52, but doubt the committee would take SMU or Memphis over us, and there are another 9 teams with .500 conference records who could flame out, so there are probably 8 teams we need to leapfrog to strengthen our at-large case.

JimUSFSig · Mar 3, 2024