Here are the bowl scenarios for USF... for 2023 - which is such a strange sentence to type. TL;DR at the bottom.
Scenario 1: USF wins and is in.
This is the best scenario. USF control's it's own bowl destiny. The AAC probably won't have enough teams to fill it's slots, so as long as USF gets to 6 wins USF will go to a bowl game.
Scenario 2: USF loses and needs (A LOT OF) help.
Okay, USF loses to Charlotte. Before the message board burns down, let's look at the help USF needs... and boy is it a lot:
First, 5-7 teams qualify for bowl games if there are not enough 6-6 teams.
In 2023, there are 41 bowls from the NY6 to the Myrtle Beach bowl. That means 82 teams get to go bowling. After this week there are 70 slots accounted for: 69 teams with 6 wins or more and the winner of the Army/Navy game. Two of those teams are James Madison and Jacksonville State - who are not technically bowl eligible. So there are either 12 or 14 slots still available.
Today, there are 23 others teams with 5 wins (not including USF). On the list, Army and Navy are the only ones who play each other, and Navy has one more game against SMU. In theory, all 24 teams could win their 6th game, meaning there would be 10-12 teams with 6 wins that don't go bowling. Now, it is just as unlikely that all 23 teams win as it would be for all 23 teams to lose. So it comes down to how many of the 23 teams win or lose.
Second, 5-7 teams are selected in order of APR.
USF was 69th overall in APR in 2021-2022 (the latest API available). While, most of the teams ahead of USF already have 6 wins, USF is tied for 16th place among the teams who are 5-6 (11 teams) or 4-7 (4 teams) this week. So for USF to make a bowl at 5-7, 15 other 5-7 teams would need to be selected or win their 6th game. (One of the 4-7 teams ahead of USF, Wake Forest, plays a 5-6 team, Syracuse. Cuse is behind USF, so the winner of that game would get in before a 5-7 USF team.)
"So what, so what, so what's the scenario?"
There are 68 or 70 slots accounted for (depending on JMU and Jax St), so let's go with 70 eligible teams for now, meaning there are 12 left to fill.
The winner of Wake Forest @ Syracuse will get selected ahead of USF. Syracuse is 5-6 but behind USF in APR and would be eligible with a win; Wake is 4-7 but is ahead of USF in APR. So we're at 11 slots left to fill.
TL;DR:
Scenario 1: USF wins and is in.
This is the best scenario. USF control's it's own bowl destiny. The AAC probably won't have enough teams to fill it's slots, so as long as USF gets to 6 wins USF will go to a bowl game.
Scenario 2: USF loses and needs (A LOT OF) help.
Okay, USF loses to Charlotte. Before the message board burns down, let's look at the help USF needs... and boy is it a lot:
First, 5-7 teams qualify for bowl games if there are not enough 6-6 teams.
In 2023, there are 41 bowls from the NY6 to the Myrtle Beach bowl. That means 82 teams get to go bowling. After this week there are 70 slots accounted for: 69 teams with 6 wins or more and the winner of the Army/Navy game. Two of those teams are James Madison and Jacksonville State - who are not technically bowl eligible. So there are either 12 or 14 slots still available.
Today, there are 23 others teams with 5 wins (not including USF). On the list, Army and Navy are the only ones who play each other, and Navy has one more game against SMU. In theory, all 24 teams could win their 6th game, meaning there would be 10-12 teams with 6 wins that don't go bowling. Now, it is just as unlikely that all 23 teams win as it would be for all 23 teams to lose. So it comes down to how many of the 23 teams win or lose.
Second, 5-7 teams are selected in order of APR.
USF was 69th overall in APR in 2021-2022 (the latest API available). While, most of the teams ahead of USF already have 6 wins, USF is tied for 16th place among the teams who are 5-6 (11 teams) or 4-7 (4 teams) this week. So for USF to make a bowl at 5-7, 15 other 5-7 teams would need to be selected or win their 6th game. (One of the 4-7 teams ahead of USF, Wake Forest, plays a 5-6 team, Syracuse. Cuse is behind USF, so the winner of that game would get in before a 5-7 USF team.)
"So what, so what, so what's the scenario?"
There are 68 or 70 slots accounted for (depending on JMU and Jax St), so let's go with 70 eligible teams for now, meaning there are 12 left to fill.
The winner of Wake Forest @ Syracuse will get selected ahead of USF. Syracuse is 5-6 but behind USF in APR and would be eligible with a win; Wake is 4-7 but is ahead of USF in APR. So we're at 11 slots left to fill.
- 4-7 teams ahead of USF in APR that need to lose:
- Michigan State (vs Penn St), Ball State (vs Miami OH), and Middle Tennessee (@ Sam Houston St)
- 5-6 teams that are ahead of USF in APR (9 total):
- Minnesota (vs Wisconsin), Rice (vs FAU), Miss St (vs Ole Miss), UCF (vs Houston), South Carolina (vs Clemson), California (@ UCLA), Florida (vs FSU), EMU (@ Buffalo), Nebraska (vs Iowa).
- It doesn't really matter if these teams win or lose, as they would get a bowl game ahead of USF regardless of the result.
- If they all win and get to 6-6 they take 9 of the 11 slots automatically. If they all lose, they would still get slots ahead of USF depending on the results of the following 14 games.
- 5-6 teams that are behind USF in APR (13 total):
- No Illinois (@ Kent St), ODU (vs Ga State), Marshall (vs Ark St), Louisiana (vs LA Monroe), Colo St (@ Hawaii), Utah St (@ New Mexico), Wazzu (@ Washington), CMU (vs Toledo), Va Tech (UVa), TCU (@ Oklahoma), BYU (@ Ok St), Illinois (vs Northwestern)
- A 5-7 USF needs 12 out of 13 of these teams to lose (10 out 13 if JMU and Jax St don't get eligible).
TL;DR:
- USF wins and they are in
- USF loses and can still get in if 13 out of 14 specific 5-6 teams lose this week; these are teams behind USF in APR.
- IF JMU and Jax St don't get to go bowling, the number drops to 11 out of 14.
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