as my theme has been most of the year taking a statistical comparison of our opponent. The last few (Temple, and Cinci), and I will take a slight bow on this, I suggested would present an easier time for USF when you got past the gloss and got to the real meat of the analysis.
Well, when it comes to UCF I am sorry to say there isn't much to say....on paper this should be a destruction. We have the 40th rush defense, against UCF's dead last rushing offense-- they average 80 ypg. The opponents they faced who are similarly ranked to our 40th defense....Temple is 27th, and they held UCF to 72 yards rushing, Houston is 41st, and they held them to 94, and Uconn is 54th and they held them to 60 yards total rushing. On paper there is no reason USF doesn't hold UCF to under 100 yards rushing. Now USF's rush offense is ranked 12th in the nation, and we had 326th against that 27th ranked Temple offense (one of the reasons they slid from 12 to 27), and we ran for over 300 against Cinci rush defense that is actually ranked 103 and behind UCF's rush defense that is ranked 97...both surrender over 194 yards per game. USF has struggled a bit rushing high on some strong rush defenses like Navy, Uconn, and FSU, but against similarly ranked rush defenses to UCF like ECU who is ranked much higher at 76, we had 256 yards rushing. Again in this category it should be no contest. I think UCF will show some teeth in rush defense, but it will hardly be horrible, and we must come in strong, disciplined, and avoid turnovers.
Passing offenses to defenses....ironically USF has one bad defensive stat and that is passing yards surrendered, and we're 73rd, while UCF is 109. Yet conversely we have a pass efficiency defense of 32nd in the nation, while UCF is second to last. This is a better gauge of pass defense because it doesn't take into account yardage but completion percentage, INT's and yardage. What this says is USF is very efficient defending the pass. A few teams have racked up yards playing catch-up against us, and we've played a lot of pass happy offenses, but generally we shut them down. Conversely UCF is not efficient, and allow a high completion percentage, and low INT number. Therefore they're not a huge risk to pass against, especially when you consider they're one of the worst in the nation in getting sacks. We have an offensive pass efficiency rating of 22nd, while UCF is one of the worst in the nation again passing the ball.
Therefore, in theory we should be able to pass very well if we play our game, don't force the ball, play smart and avoid turnovers. Conversely, UCF is a sloppy passing team, that also comes from not having a consistent QB. It looks like Holman, and their best WR Peyton will miss the game. Expect a very sloppy passing game again, and with our ball hawking DB's we could be seeing another big day for them.
Overall UCF is the second worst in the nation in scoring defense, worst in scoring offense....they give up a ton, and score very little...
It's hard to find one statistical advantage where UCF might have a chance. I'd call the intangible, being a Thanksgiving evening game, and a rivalry game so it has the chance to be weird for the players....but it is critical CWT has the boys coming in ready to play smart, disciplined, and hard. Don't worry about beating them bad, don't concentrate on it, and don't let the players OR COACHES get over confident. If we play our game, particularly how we've been playing the last month, and they've been playing the last month, this shouldn't even be a game. The key is to play smart, physical, and disciplined do that like they've done the past month and the rest will take care of itself. Try to scoreboard watch, and big-time or come in over-confident and cocky and we could allow them to hang around and make it a game.
Well, when it comes to UCF I am sorry to say there isn't much to say....on paper this should be a destruction. We have the 40th rush defense, against UCF's dead last rushing offense-- they average 80 ypg. The opponents they faced who are similarly ranked to our 40th defense....Temple is 27th, and they held UCF to 72 yards rushing, Houston is 41st, and they held them to 94, and Uconn is 54th and they held them to 60 yards total rushing. On paper there is no reason USF doesn't hold UCF to under 100 yards rushing. Now USF's rush offense is ranked 12th in the nation, and we had 326th against that 27th ranked Temple offense (one of the reasons they slid from 12 to 27), and we ran for over 300 against Cinci rush defense that is actually ranked 103 and behind UCF's rush defense that is ranked 97...both surrender over 194 yards per game. USF has struggled a bit rushing high on some strong rush defenses like Navy, Uconn, and FSU, but against similarly ranked rush defenses to UCF like ECU who is ranked much higher at 76, we had 256 yards rushing. Again in this category it should be no contest. I think UCF will show some teeth in rush defense, but it will hardly be horrible, and we must come in strong, disciplined, and avoid turnovers.
Passing offenses to defenses....ironically USF has one bad defensive stat and that is passing yards surrendered, and we're 73rd, while UCF is 109. Yet conversely we have a pass efficiency defense of 32nd in the nation, while UCF is second to last. This is a better gauge of pass defense because it doesn't take into account yardage but completion percentage, INT's and yardage. What this says is USF is very efficient defending the pass. A few teams have racked up yards playing catch-up against us, and we've played a lot of pass happy offenses, but generally we shut them down. Conversely UCF is not efficient, and allow a high completion percentage, and low INT number. Therefore they're not a huge risk to pass against, especially when you consider they're one of the worst in the nation in getting sacks. We have an offensive pass efficiency rating of 22nd, while UCF is one of the worst in the nation again passing the ball.
Therefore, in theory we should be able to pass very well if we play our game, don't force the ball, play smart and avoid turnovers. Conversely, UCF is a sloppy passing team, that also comes from not having a consistent QB. It looks like Holman, and their best WR Peyton will miss the game. Expect a very sloppy passing game again, and with our ball hawking DB's we could be seeing another big day for them.
Overall UCF is the second worst in the nation in scoring defense, worst in scoring offense....they give up a ton, and score very little...
It's hard to find one statistical advantage where UCF might have a chance. I'd call the intangible, being a Thanksgiving evening game, and a rivalry game so it has the chance to be weird for the players....but it is critical CWT has the boys coming in ready to play smart, disciplined, and hard. Don't worry about beating them bad, don't concentrate on it, and don't let the players OR COACHES get over confident. If we play our game, particularly how we've been playing the last month, and they've been playing the last month, this shouldn't even be a game. The key is to play smart, physical, and disciplined do that like they've done the past month and the rest will take care of itself. Try to scoreboard watch, and big-time or come in over-confident and cocky and we could allow them to hang around and make it a game.
